Climate Futures. Where the next storm lands.

Future storms are not just stronger. They land differently.

Future tropical-cyclone projections are usually summarised as stronger storms and heavier rain. Climate Futures asks the sharper, spatial question: under the same warming, where do different historical storms reorganise their rainfall and wind?

A single warmed storm cannot define a region's risk. Edgion runs a multi-storm storyline ensemble so the answer carries its own uncertainty.

A real storm, re-run under a warmer atmosphere.

Each scenario replays an observed high-impact storm at 3 km convection-permitting resolution under a bias-corrected future-climate perturbation. Because the historical pathway is held fixed, the difference between the historical run and the warming run isolates the climate signal, with explicit, repeatable assumptions.

// STORYLINE ENSEMBLE DESIGN3 storms · 10 members · 36 runs

Added rainfall is not a single multiplier.

Across storms and members, the heaviest rainfall does not scale by one number. The 99th-percentile response ranges from 0.63× to 1.83× the simple thermodynamic reference: under the same warming, one storm intensifies and pushes its heavy rain inland, one actually falls below the simple reference, and one opens a new coastal extreme-rain zone where there was none.

// 48 H RAINFALL · ENSEMBLE MEANvs thermodynamic reference 1.0×

48 h rainfall, ensemble mean (mm)

025100200400700

Mangkhut 20181.83×heavy rain intensifies and shifts inland

Hato 20170.63×falls below the thermodynamic reference

Hagupit 20081.51×opens a new coastal extreme-rain zone

Ensemble-mean 48 h rainfall · CPAS 3 km. × = 99th-percentile response vs the thermodynamic (Clausius–Clapeyron) reference of 1.0×.

Each replay becomes an event-scale hazard stress test.

Wind footprints broaden on a separate pathway (high-wind area up +5 to +14% at storm-force, +10 to +22% at hurricane-force), and flash-flood zones expand and move. Together the storylines form a multi-storm event set: where heavy rain expands, where damaging winds shift, and which areas enter the future hazard footprint.

// FLASH-FLOOD ZONES · HIST vs WARMINGnew ≥50 mm/hr zone vs existing

Existing ≥50 mm/hr zone · historical Future ≥50 mm/hr zone · warming ensemble

Fraction of warming members crossing ≥50 mm/hr

0.31.0

Mangkhut 201881,614km²new flash-flood zone opens inland

Hato 201792,595km²largest new flood footprint of the three

Hagupit 200826,830km²concentrated coastal expansion

Land-masked flash-flood zones · CPAS 3 km. New-zone area is where the warming ensemble crosses the ≥50 mm/hr threshold beyond the historical footprint.

Bespoke scenarios for places, assets, and extremes.

// note: these are physics-based storyline stress tests, not forecasts that the same storms will recur. Public figures are illustrative; they show how past events could reorganise under warming, and are counterfactual tests on present-day exposure rather than predictions of specific future storms.